Positive EV 101: What Is Expected Value? Outlier Smarter Sports Betting

Remember that in sports betting, you won’t know the true odds of a potential outcome, so solving for EV is not an exact science. However, the more accurately you can assess value, the more likely you’ll generate positive EV in sports betting. Expected value (EV) in betting is a calculation that determines the potential profitability of a bet over time. It combines odds and probability to provide an average outcome if the same bet is placed repeatedly under identical conditions.

• Let’s bring this to life with a realistic sports betting scenario.
• Vigorish, or VIG, is the fee a bookie charges for taking a sports bet.
• If you’re given +150 odds, that implies a probability of about 40%.
• An EV of -$5 means you’d lose $5 per $100 bet on average (a -5% drain, which over time is devastating).

If they are winning 53% of their bets at -110 odds, they are making money in the long run, even if they lose sometimes. This means that over time, the mathematics of betting ensures most bettors will lose money. This house edge ensures that while you might win sometimes in the short run, you’ll mathematically lose money over many spins.

Positive vs Negative EV Bets

Niche markets typically have less competition, which may provide more favorable conditions for adept bettors. When they need to buy anything, the habit of most people is to get the best Value for their money by doing price checks at multiple stores. After all, even the slightest addition in implied percentage points can benefit an experienced EV+ bettor.

Quest for +EV

Managing your bankroll responsibly will help you to weather storms and come out on top over time. Every slight deviation to betting lines changes a value bet for better or worse, and those differences add up in a hurry. That’s why it’s great you’re not limited to just one sportsbook. Having accounts with two or more trusted betting sites lets you compare lines and place bets at the best price. You can also claim extra welcome bonuses when signing up at a new betting site. Many casual sports bettors focus on predicting the outcome of an event.

When we calculated the expected value for the coin flip roobet the winning/losing percentage was 50% despite getting -110 odds. This is because the -110 odds are juiced, and the true % was 50/50 each way. Knowing the implied probability of -110 odds is 52.38% adding both probabilities together would equal 104.76%.